Wednesday, December 24, 2008


not that i'm predicting the end of the world but i feel the need to comment on the absolute VACUUM of market commentary predicting a huge decline next year. i haven't seen anyone say that they think there's another 50% decline in the market next year. where are the crack pots? everyone on cnbc is non directional or at least vague as shiiiii.

ever being the contrarian, shouldn't the market gravitate towards the thing everybody fears but no one will say? i see so much "this one will be different than before" on the upside and even now during a decline. japan has been f%$#ed for years. the great depression lasted for 10+. there were several recessions referred to as depressions in the 1800's. the most notable being after the western blizzard of 1857, initiated by the huge gold discoveries in 1849 onward, which created a HUGE MOTHER F%$#ING CREDIT BUBBLE. it just all sounds so familiar.

the governments of the world discovered a huge new pile of gold in the form of export-saving economies financing import-spending economies. asia financed america's spending binge by loaning us all the cash we just sent over through intermediaries like wal-mart and target. this gigantic ponzi scheme touched off a gigantic credit bubble that sent house prices (and the price of everything else) soaring.

now we're in the pricking of the bubble phase. where did people like this get off saying that we would have a large recovery in six months. now this is the mantra of every commentator out there. i have since realized that mine was based more on a hope and a song than rational thought, and have thusly revised my M.O.

I now realize that we are on the cusp of something great. obama refered to it as the arc of history... right now it is more like a pin head. On the downside is the great financial "demon" of deflation. this would destroy our current world economy, but would rebalance them for the long term better. short term interests (the current world order) do not want this to happen, and will fight tooth and nail to maintain inflation. they very well might, but they will systematically devalue the dollar to do so.

on the upside is another huge credit fueled bubble like the ones we've seen in the past. then the inevitable bust and a further retesting of our trajectory on the needle point of history.

historic volatility has certainly increased. build a bunker.

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